Omar al Bashers Indictment issued by the ICC has consequences and political impacts and challenges to the international justice mechanisms.
Here are the Consequences of the ICC indictment of the Sudanese military and religious dictatorial regime in Sudan and its political impact internationally in the lights of what should be done to save Sudan.
Today's decision by the judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue a warrant of arrest for Sudanese President Omar Bashir for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in Darfur is a welcome and crucial step towards challenging the impunity that has worsened conflict in Darfur and elsewhere in Sudan.
The Sudanese government must exercise restraint in its response to the decision, and ensure that its actions do not undermine the opportunity to achieve peace in Sudan.
It must also take genuine steps to transform the political institutions and policies that drive conflict in Sudan.
The response by the Sudanese people, their government, the region and the international community will help determine whether this is the beginning of genuine democratic transformation in Sudan, or whether Bashir's regime, including the army and other security services, will continue on their destructive path.
For the Sudanese government in Khartoum, the implications of Omar al Bashir's indictment are complex and critical. It will force the ruling majority, the National Congress Party (NCP), to recognise that international efforts to prosecute those responsible for atrocities in Darfur cannot be readily evaded.
This realisation may bring into the open simmering tensions within the highest levels of the NCP over the strategy and tactics pursued by the regime's leadership in recent years.
Increasingly there are those within the senior ranks of the NCP who believe that Bashir's policy of confrontation with Sudan's peripheral regions (such as Darfur, Kurdufan, Eastern and Southern Sudan) has been counterproductive, and will lead to much greater destabilisation and international isolation.
Still, Bashir and his security apparatus are entrenched in their positions, and continue to claim that the ICC is a tool of those seeking "regime change" in Sudan.
Bashir's regime has already issued veiled threats against the UN and AU missions in Sudan, the international humanitarian agencies operating there and Sudanese who support the ICC prosecution.
It could also direct, or encourage, violence against the millions of displaced Fur living in camps in the war-torn region. There are signs that it may also declare a state of emergency and clamp down on internal Sudanese political opposition, to show the Darfur rebels groups that they will not be able to use this development to their military and political advantage.
Such actions would risk further destabilising the country, given the inevitable opposition from many within Sudan, and likely international condemnation, including from its African and Arab allies.
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the NCP's partner in government, would strongly oppose the declaration of a state of emergency, and may well pull out of the North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in the event of a unilateral declaration. This risks plunging Sudan back into widespread conflict.
There are also internal NCP constraints. In addition to divisions on strategy, powerful figures within the NCP and in the top ranks of the Sudan Armed Forces have grown wealthy from economic investment in Sudan, and will be keen to ensure that such investment is not driven away by a violent over-reaction to the indictment.
Sudan's international allies have a strong interest in the country's stability, and they too must pressure the regime to react with restraint.
In particular, China, with its very significant stake in the oil industry, Egypt with its interest in regional stability and access to the Nile waters, and Gulf states with big economic investments in the country should push Sudan not to lash out.
Given internal tensions within the regime, the indictment itself may provoke change. Bashir's delegitimization in the eyes of both external actors and the Sudanese population may empower those opposed to the security-focused approach of the NCP hardliners.
The prospects of Bashir's isolation and even removal are real, but unlikely. The more likely outcome is that he will remain in power with no prospect of ending up before the ICC any time soon.
But the status quo is not tenable either. The potential collapse of the CPA and a consequent return to conflict pose a huge risk of national disintegration – an outcome feared by the regime and its neighbours.
And Sudan is in an increasingly parlous economic state now that its oil revenues have fallen dramatically. Economic partners are likely to be increasingly wary of the reputational costs of dealing with a country headed by a leader indicted for atrocity crimes.
To preserve its economic interests and guarantee its survival, the NCP is likely to look for a way out of the situation. In the past, it has responded to international pressure by making tactical concessions and stalling for time.
The regime's recent signing of a "declaration of intent" in Doha, Qatar, with the rebel Justice and Equality Movement must be analysed in this context.
While it is a useful first step to relaunch the Darfur peace process, too many such commitments have been violated in the past for it to be taken as evidence of a change in approach.
The time has now come for a genuine change in the NCP's policies
What should be done regarding Omar al Bashers indictment?
What should be be done at all?
Have some comments on those hot lines?
Bring them in here on the COMMENT C2 ENTRIES form below. Use the form and provide complete details.
When you finish submitting the form, type your name and email address where applicable to get notifications of comments on yours and then download some e-books I am offering as gifts to improve your living.
Do you have a great story about or from the Horn of Africa? Share it! Note that you can use the forms in this platform to comment and write about political topics in the Horn of Africa. Some pages about other countries may fall out of this map. However, they may have some impacts on some countries in this map. You can use the same forms anyway to comment or write about them too.
Click below to see contributions from other visitors to this page...
Some Countries Undermine the ICC!
Some African countries and the United State as well are undermining the ICC. But should people consider that a reason to exempt the Sudanese dictator from …
NIF's Political Crimes!
The crimes committed by the NIF regime throughout its history should be documented comprehensively. Cases with those crimes should try later on in front …
You can watch documentaries on Omar al Bashers indictment and additional documentaries on the entire Sudan on the TVCinemaApp.com's documentaries at the TVCinemaApp.com/documentary-film.html, as you can read more about that has been the beautiful nature of Sudan at Kordofan.
The following website building and optimizing tools on the link at the bottom of this page empower Omar al Bashers ICC Indictment. They actually empower the entire HOA Political Scene. You can use them to empower anything you know something about.
Like the page?
So, please share Omar al Bashers indictment with your friends at the social media and elsewhere. find the small buttons below to do that. You can also forward Omar al Bashers indictment through the form at Forward HOA Political Scene. Thanks.
HOA's Political Scene Home| HOA's Political-Scene Blog| HOA's Political Scene| HOA's Political Section| HOA's Political Inspiration| Horn of Africa (HOA)| Djibouti| Djibouti Country Profile| Djibouti's Political Scene| Djibouti's Political Problems| Eritrea| Eritrea Country Profile| Eritrean Political Scene| Eritrea's Political Problems| EPLF| Eritrea and NGOs| Eritrean Refugees| Red Sea Paradise| Ethiopia| Ethiopia Country Profile| Ethiopia's Political Scene| Ethiopia's Political Problems| Awassa| Awassa Children's Village| Ethio-Eritrean Wars| Ethiopian Refugees| Kenya| Kenya Country Profile| Kenya's Political Scene| Kenya's Political Problems| Somalia| Somalia Country Profile| Somali Political Scene| Somalia's Political Problems| Somali News| Somali Archives| Sudan| Sudan Country Profile| Sudan's Political Scene| Political Problems in Sudan| Democracy in Sudan| Human Rights in Sudan| Darfur| International Criminal Court ICC| ICC Indictment| Omar al Bashir| Luis Moreno Ocampo| Sudanese Dictatorial Regimes| Mao tse-Tung| Uganda| Uganda Country Profile| Uganda's Political Scene| Uganda's Political Problems| Humanitarian Network| Environment Protection| Environment| Horn of Africa's Friends| Comments| Forward HOA's Political Scene| Search| Freelancing Fees| Horn of Africa's Bookshop| Contact Us|
Explore, Freelancing Jobs, Political books by titles, documentaries by title, Horn of Africa! Politics Economy Uganda, political studies, bachelor political science, etc...
"Like" & "Tweet" below to express your love!
دعوة لك يا عزيزي لتعمل "لايك" و"تغرد" هذه الصفحة وتنقر علي الايقونة الصغيرة تحت الصور
See example pictures of our free stuff.
Loading crossword puzzle. One moment please.
Here is (Rising of the Phoenix), including some political poetry! This Arabic poetry book comes in different formats. Enjoy one of them. It is beautiful too!
Do You Want this Arabic Poetry e-Book Free?
Well, subscribe to the HOA PoliticalScene Newsletter here, confirm through the email you will receive and tell me that you came to it from this page through the Contact Us form here.
Like HOA Political Scene? Email it to friends at Forward HOA Political Scene.
Print posters free to enjoy reading poetry, or to enjoy beautiful images.
And don't forget to say thank you by liking, tweeting, pinning the pictures, or sharing this page with your social media.